A small referendum on the Democratic Congress?

Can special elections like this pull Democrats back from the bring? Obviously it is much easier to take over a vacant seat than one with an incumbent defending it.

That's the warning from the unlikely quarter of Tuesday's special state senate election in Kentucky that became a referendum on the Democratic agenda in Washington, especially health care. Voters in the 14th District elected Republican Jimmy Higdon over Democrat Jodie Haydon by 12 points. That's significant in a district that leans Democratic by more than 2 to 1, and where Democrats and their allies spent more than $1 million, perhaps twice what the GOP did. While the Democrat campaigned on local issues and jobs, Mr. Higdon focused relentlessly on the national controversy surrounding health care. . . .

Might a lot of Republicans be about ready to vote for Hoffman in NY-23rd?

Might guess is that many Republicans are planning on voting for Dede Scozzafava simply because she is the Republican candidate and they don't think that a conservative can win. However, if those voters are convinced that Hoffman is outpolling Dede Scozzafava, I predict that they will quickly switch to Hoffman. Here are two polls that indicate that things may be about to change.

From John Fund at the WSJ's Political Diary:

But the NRCC is nonetheless playing a cautious game. Internal polls show Ms. Scozzafava slipping into third place with each new revelation about her liberal voting record as a state legislator. Thus the NRCC is running about $250,000 in TV ads to bash Ms. Scozzafava's Democratic opponent Bill Owens, but confining its attacks on Mr. Hoffman to low-impact press releases. . . .

Here is another poll:

The poll of 300 likely voters, conducted October 24-25, 2009, shows Conservative Doug Hoffman at 31.3%, Democrat Bill Owens at 27.0%, Republican Dede Scozzafava at 19.7%, and 22% undecided. The poll's margin of error is +/- 5.66%. No information was provided about any of the candidates prior to the ballot question. . . . .

"Don't Believe the Corzine Surge Just Yet"

Election handicapper Stuart Rothenberg writing at RealClearPolitics.com on why reports suggesting Democratic Governor Jon Corzine of New Jersey will win re-election offer "a distorted view of the contest."

"Describing [Governor Jon] Corzine as closing the gap or pulling closer conveys the impression that Corzine is gathering support and increasing his standing in the contest. He is not. . . .The governor continues to be stuck between 38 percent and 42 percent in the ballot test, where he has been for many months, and the fundamentals of the race continue to favor the Republican challenger."

Democrat in NYC runs for City Comptroller based on his gun control record?

This was amusing. The Comptroller is a finance position, but gun control is always popular in NYC so why not go with that. Well, it apparently didn't work. GunPoliticsNY.com has this:

David Yassky is a former staffer to Charles Schumer. He’s the guy who actually wrote the Brady Bill. He moved up to the City Council where he continued to push for more gun control like strict gun dealer liability. Pat, Amy and Barry testified on behalf of NYSRPA in council hearings against these ideas. Yassky himself defended them on NRA News. Faced with term limits Yassky decided to run for City Comptroller. He has no background related to finance so he based his campaign largely on his gun control record. Both the Daily News and New York Times endorsed his campaign because of it. . . .

A double digit loss. Yassky gets 44.3% to Liu’s 55.7%.

Since he had to give up his Council seat to run for Comptroller he’s got nowhere else to go so he’s outta here. For the second time in as many weeks NYC Democrats have rejected the gun control candidate and their agenda and that will further marginalize the people and organizations who promoted them.

I am not sure that one can read too much into this, but it is amusing. Richard Aborn, another big gun control guy, apparently also lost his race to be Manhattan District Attorney.

Democrats Keeping Soldiers from Voting in Virginia?

From Redstate.com:

The Virginia State Board of Elections argued in their most recent filing that they have no legal obligation to send out military absentee ballots in a timely manner. Restated, the State of Virginia has argued in a federal court filing that they can legally send out absentee ballots to active duty soldiers the day before an election. Restated again, theDemocratic Chairwoman of the Virginia State Board of Election (appointed by the Democratic National Committee Chair Tim Kaine, in his capacity as Virginia Governor) Jean Cunningham just claimed a legal basis for massively raising the barrier to voting for soldiers at war. . . .

Former Democratic Governor Wilder refuses to endorse current Democratic Nominee Deeds

From the Politico:

Former Virginia governor Douglas Wilder announced Thursday that he will not be endorsing a candidate in the Virginia gubernatorial race, while mounting some sharp criticism at Democrat Creigh Deeds over his stance on taxes and guns. . . .

Creigh Deeds: "I think that I made myself clear young lady" Reporter: "I am sorry, I am not trying to be mean, I just don't quite understand."

The Democratic Gubernatorial has a hard time explaining his position on taxes.



"I am not going to raise taxes."

"I know that we are going to have raise money for transportation."

This is also pretty funny about Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm.

How the Democratic Gubernatorial Candidate in Virginia made his decision on gun show regulations

The proposed law had nothing to do with the crime, but Deeds was "moved" by the parents "appeals." My question is: why were the parents even talking about gun show regulations? I know that the Brady Campaign was pushing for this, but who would even think of bringing up a regulation that was unrelated to the crime.

For years, Deeds had opposed gun show restrictions. His perspective changed after the April 16, 2007, Virginia Tech massacre when a student with two handguns shot 32 people dead on campus then killed himself as police closed in.

Although neither of the guns Seung-Hui Cho used to carry out the worst mass killing on a college campus in U.S. history was purchased at a gun show, Deeds said he was moved by the appeals of parents, relatives and friends of the slain. . . .

Republican keeps lead in Virginia Gubernatorial Polls

McDonnell still has a lead in Virginia despite the attempt by the Washington Post to make a big deal about McDonnell writing 20 years ago that it is better for the kids if women stay home to raise them. This doesn't seem as controversial to me as it is to the WP. Rasmussen Reports poll finds.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Virginia voters finds McDonnell leading Deeds 51% to 42%. That’s little changed from a month ago when McDonnell held the advantage 49% to 41%. All of those figures include “leaners.” Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. . . .

Debate over guns in Virginia Gubernatorial Race

From the Washington Post:

The question of how much to regulate the sale and possession of guns has always been a dividing line in Virginia political contests. This year's gubernatorial candidates -- former attorney general Robert F. McDonnell (R) and state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds (D) -- both have extensive pro-gun records. But the campaign is unfolding at a turbulent and uncertain time in the nation's debate over guns. One unresolved issue in Virginia, where 36 percent of households have a firearm, is whether to close the so-called gun show loophole, which permits freelance sellers like Begay. . . . .

"Virginia is ground zero for this debate," said Alexander Howe, a spokesman for Americans United for Safe Streets. Legislation to require background checks for every transaction at a gun show is pending in Congress as both sides strive for the advantage.

President Obama's election triggered a surge in sales among gun buyers, who feared that he and a Democratic-led Congress would push for new regulations. Instead, gun owners have cheered moves by Congress to allow people to carry concealed weapons in national parks and to link voting rights for the District to looser gun regulations. . . . .

Deeds has a real problem having changed his views on a lot of big hot button issues from Abortion to gun control.

VA. Republican Gubernatorial Candidate: Privatizing state liquor stores to fund transportation

From the Washington Times:

Republican gubernatorial candidate Robert F. McDonnell on Tuesday proposed privatizing Virginia's liquor stores in order to reap about $500 million in revenue dedicated to funding the state's transportation needs.

The proposal, unprecedented among states grappling with ways to fund infrastructure in the midst of a nationwide economic downturn, would provide for a wish list of projects led by a plan to widen Interstate 66 both inside and outside the Capital Beltway.

"The plan doesn't rely on tax increases; it relies on making Virginia transportation more efficient," Mr. McDonnell said at the announcement of his 20-page transportation plan - made on the roof of an Arlington parking garage that overlooks the often congested I-66.

The former state attorney general also proposed dedicating 0.30 percent of sales tax in Northern Virginia to a regional transportation account that he said would generate $105 million annually to pay for transportation improvements in the region. . . . .

NJ Poll: Christie leads Corzine by 15

The Politico has this:

New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie has opened his lead over incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine to a whopping 15 points, according to a new poll released today.

The new survey from Republican polling firm Strategic Vision gives Christie a 53 percent to 38 percent lead over Corzine, whose approval ratings have plummeted as economic tides battered New Jersey.

Only 4 percent of respondents told the pollsters they were undecided – that means this race is shaking out a lot faster than anyone in New Jersey thought, and that Corzine needs a game-changer to win back independents who have flocked to the Republican.

The poll, conducted July 17-19, surveyed 800 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

Republican takes lead in Virginia Gubernatorial Polls

It is a very tight race, but McDonnell has a slim lead right now.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Virginia voters finds McDonnell leading Deeds 44% to 41%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and 12% are undecided.
A month ago, just after Deeds beat two other gubernatorial candidates in the state Democratic Primary, he posted a six-point lead over McDonnell, 47% to 41%. . . .

Another poll puts him slightly farther ahead.

Republican Bob McDonnell has opened a six-point lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds in the race for governor, according to a survey of likely November voters released today.

The Public Policy Polling analysis finds McDonnell ahead of Deeds 49-43 percent, within the poll's 4 percent margin of error. . . .

The PPP findings also indicate that McDonnell's six-point lead is identical to one Republican Jerry Kilgore held over Kaine, a Democrat, at this stage of the 2005 gubernatorial campaign (Kaine went on to win the race, a point emphasized by Democrats).

Public Policy Polling is a Democrat-affiliated outfit based in North Carolina, noted one Republican who rejects the firm's analysis of parallels between polling of Kilgore's 2005 race and McDonnell's 2009 contest. . . . .