10/13/2009

"Don't Believe the Corzine Surge Just Yet"

Election handicapper Stuart Rothenberg writing at RealClearPolitics.com on why reports suggesting Democratic Governor Jon Corzine of New Jersey will win re-election offer "a distorted view of the contest."

"Describing [Governor Jon] Corzine as closing the gap or pulling closer conveys the impression that Corzine is gathering support and increasing his standing in the contest. He is not. . . .The governor continues to be stuck between 38 percent and 42 percent in the ballot test, where he has been for many months, and the fundamentals of the race continue to favor the Republican challenger."

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1 Comments:

Blogger William said...

At Intrade, a Corzine win is currently priced at 63, so I would discount the polls. A Deeds win in Virginia is currently priced at 9, so it will probably be a split. However will that be spun.

10/15/2009 11:31 AM  

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