Which Republican presidential candidate has the highest probability of winning the general election?

My son Maxim and John Stossel have set up a website entitled "Election Betting Odds," where they show the probability that the candidates will win the Republican nomination and the presidency.  The problem with the current odds for winning the presidency is that what you really want are the odds of winning the presidency conditional on winning the nomination.  Looking at the odds for the candidates with at least a 10 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination, the conditional probabilities of winning the presidency are (8:30 AM EST February 6th, 2016):

Rubio 45% = 25.3%/56.7%
Trump 30% = 6.8%/23%
Cruz 28% = 3.5%/12.3%

Senator Ted Cruz raises an important point: "U.S.’s chief concern, if it goes into Syria, should be to make sure that chemical weapons do not fall “into the hands of al Qaeda or other terrorists"

Here is part of Ted Cruz's press release from Saturday after Obama's remark:

I remain concerned that the mission proposed by the President is not in furtherance the vital national security interests of the United States. To date I have heard a great deal from the administration about punishing Bashir al-Assad for violating an “international norm” through the use of chemical weapons, and that this is why we must act against him. Abstract notions about international norms should never displace U.S. sovereignty to act, or refuse to act, for our national security.

Assad’s murderous actions have claimed the lives of more than a hundred thousand of his own people, which is a humanitarian tragedy. But our chief strategic concern should not be international norms; it should be preventing the chemical weapons from falling into the hands of al Qaeda or other terrorists who might use them against us and our allies. . . .

New piece at National Review: "Ted Cruz Sets the Record Straight on Guns"

My new piece at National Review starts this way:

Newly elected senator Ted Cruz has jumped right into the fray. So far he is the only senator who has dared challenge the many blatant falsehoods President Obama and many congressional Democrats have been pushing regarding guns, in particular the bogus claim that 40 percent of gun sales are done without background checks. 

Unsurprisingly, his willingness to speak out has recently made Cruz a target of the media. While he has come in for a range of attacks from the New York Times, recently Politifact has focused on his statement: “the jurisdictions with the strictest gun-control laws, almost without exception . . . have the highest crime rates and the highest murder rates.” In the last case, they labeled his statement “false.” 

Is the “false” rating deserved? In Politifact’s explanation, it becomes more than a little bit obvious that their verdict is seriously strained, not least because they do acknowledge that context clarifies Cruz’s point. When using the term “strictest gun-control laws,” the senator was referring to gun bans (either a ban on handguns or all guns), and he was referring to so-called panel data as the evidence. 

This makes a considerable difference  . . . .

Senator Ted Cruz on gun control and other issues

Ted Cruz: The Next Attorney General for the State of Texas

An impressive speech by Ted.

Note to those interested: Ted was the Solicitor General of the state of Texas. He is running for the AG job.