UN agrees to let Iranian inspectors look at military nuclear sites, Obama adm couldn't get agreement on this key part so they let UN negotiate

The most shocking part of this interview with Representative Ed Royce is the revelation that the Obama administration couldn't get agreement on this key part so they let UN negotiate it.

Most telling quote about Iranian nuclear arms deal: Do you really want a treaty that depends on "goodwill" from both parties to work?

Here is a quote from the very end of an article in the WSJ:

. . . observers warned that given the complexity of the agreement, which contains one main text and five detailed annexes and totals about 100 pages, the risks of disputes over implementation of terms could cause delays or even derail the deal. 

“The technical obstacles can be surpassed with goodwill and diligence, but political hurdles can turn into poison pills,” said Ali Vaez, senior Iran analyst at Crisis International, an international conflict resolution group. 

“Neither Iran nor the U.S. has ever implemented such a complex quid pro quo. . . .

How good is a deal that depends on the "goodwill" for the two parties involved to make sure that the treaty works? 

5 of the US demands that were dropped in negotiations with Iram

5 things that the Obama administration gave in on when they negotiated with Iran.  The agreement doesn't really seem enforceable as we will have to give the Iranians a heads up before any investigations occur.  Summarizing what was in The Hill newspaper and some other sources:

1. Banning uranium enrichment

2. In 2012, Obama promised ending their nuclear program. In 2013, he promised capping centrifuges at 500 to 1,500

Before re-election in 2012, Obama promised: "The deal we'll accept is: they end their nuclear program. It's very straightforward."

what we got was 6,104

3. Shuttering secret nuclear facilities 

President Obama said in December 2013: “They don’t need to have an underground, fortified facility like Fordow in order to have a peaceful nuclear program,.  They certainly don’t need a heavy-water reactor at Arak in order to have a peaceful nuclear program."

What we got was that nothing got shut down

4. Ending Iran's ballistic missile program

What we got was nothing

5. Finalizing  a 25-year sunset clause

10 year agreement, assuming that one believes that it is enforceable. 

Does the Obama administration know anything about world markets?

If Japan buys less Iranian oil and more oil from some place else, another country will buy more Iranian oil and less from that other place. There very little effect on anything. Possibly the only loss is presumably the oil went where it did to begin with because it minimized transportation costs.

On the other hand exempting 11 major countries from penalties for dealing with Iran's central bank means that any international transactions will be taken care of through those countries (in addition to China or Russia that would ignore the sanctions anyway). From Foreign Policy:

The State Department announced on Tuesday that it would exempt 10 European countries and Japan from penalties for doing business with Iran's central bank, because those countries are making significant progress toward weaning themselves off of Iranian oil.

"I am pleased to announce that an initial group of eleven countries has significantly reduced their volume of crude oil purchases from Iran -- Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom. As a result, I will report to the Congress that sanctions pursuant to Section 1245 of the National Defense Authorization Act for 2012 (NDAA) will not apply to the financial institutions based in these countries, for a renewable period of 180 days," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in a Tuesday statement. "The actions taken by these countries were not easy. They had to rethink their energy needs at a critical time for the world economy and quickly begin to find alternatives to Iranian oil, which many had been reliant on for their energy needs."

The European Union banned all new purchases of Iranian crude oil as of Jan. 23 and will phase out existing contracts by July 1, Clinton said. Japan was able to reduce its dependence on Iranian oil even despite energy shortages created by the Fukushima nuclear disaster.

"We commend these countries for their actions and urge other nations that import oil from Iran to follow their example," said Clinton. "Diplomacy coupled with strong pressure can achieve the long-term solutions we seek and we will continue to work with our international partners to increase the pressure on Iran to meet its international obligations." . . .

Why sanctions on Iran are not serious

Sanctions rarely work. They are even less likely to impose a significant cost on a country when other neighboring countries aren't interested in imposing sanctions. If Russia, China, and other countries are refusing to participate, what chance do these sanctions have? From VOA:

Iran and its powerful ally Russia have denounced new Western sanctions on Tehran's financial, petrochemical and energy sectors, calling them illegal and futile.

The U.S., Canada, and Britain each announced new steps Monday to increase economic pressure against Iran in response to international concerns that Tehran is developing nuclear weapons.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said Tuesday the unilateral measures by the the three countries amounted merely to "propaganda and psychological warfare." He predicted they would prove ineffective, saying Iran's trade and economic ties with the U.S. and Britain are small anyway.

Separately, Russia's foreign ministry called the sanctions "unacceptable and contradictory to international law." Moscow, together with Beijing, has blocked further punitive measures against Tehran from reaching the United Nations Security Council for approval. Four rounds of U.N. sanctions against Iran have already been passed.

Washington said Monday it is imposing sanctions on goods and services used by Iran's oil and gas industry to discourage foreign companies from investing in the sector. The U.S. also announced a worldwide diplomatic campaign to encourage countries to buy petrochemicals from other suppliers. . .