Is the stock market an even better predictor than Intrade of who will win elections?

Is there enough money being bet in Intrade for it to be very accurate? Usually Intrade's last traded prices are used to make predictions when the question should be how accurate are the trades one month or two months in advance. From CNBC:
One analysis concludes that last week's sharp three-day market surge can only mean that Wall Street is banking on a victory from Republican Mitt Romney.

That's the logical interpretation one can draw from a rally amid conditions that otherwise would demand a selloff, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Adam S. Parker said in an analysis that asserts there is no other reason now to like stocks than a Romney win. . . .



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