9/07/2014

Scotland moves to independence, the political ramifications: a much more conservative and less EU friendly England

With Labour holding 40 of the 59 Scottish seats in the UK parliament, Scottish independence is going to dramatically transform British politics.  Forty seats out of 325 needed for a majority and the most recent polls showing a slight majority of Scots in favor of independence, the Labour Party is in disaster mode, with Labour MPs flocking to Scotland to convince voters there not to vote for independence.  

A lot of the purported fears about Scottish independence are pretty weak.  Take the claim that new Scottish government won't be able to continue to share the pound with the rest of the UK in a formal currency union.  There is a simple what that Scotland can do that without any help from the UK government.  Just look at how Panama and China used to link their currencies to the US Dollar.  Both countries committed to exchanging their currencies at a specific rate to the dollar.v

If this independence occurs, it will put the Conservatives in England and Wales in office for years.  It will probably also make the party more conservative as the party has room to compete with the UK Independence Party.   Scotland has been a strong supporter of the EU, so Scottish independence would probably doom what ever chance there was of defeating the referendum that Cameron has promised in 2017.  My guess is that all this also means that England will be a much stronger ally of the US.  

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