The Illusionary Drop in Unemployment, how the drop in unemployment is due to people leaving the work force, not them getting jobs

Click on figure to make it larger

The red line shows how the actual unemployment rate over time.  The blue line shows shows how the unemployment rate has changed since Obama became president if one assumes that the labor force participation rate hadn't plummeted since he became president.  Once one takes into account those who are simply leaving the labor force, the unemployment rate isn't getting noticeably better since the end of 2009.



Blogger kotetu said...

Hi John,

I've pointed this out several times on my blog, putting together various reports from the BLS and the census to support the concept. We're still down about 2.5 million employed people from Dec-2007 and up about 12.5 million working aged adults who aren't working. The Employment to Population ratio was smashed during the recession, dropping 5% and never recovering.

We've reached an interesting and dangerous point, in my opinion. According to the BLS, we've got more than 102 million working aged adults unemployed (including the 91 million not in the labor force) compared to 144.3 million employed adults. Here's the kicker - according to the census bureau, 20.6 million of those are federal, state, or local civilian employees. In the harshest terms, takers, not producers. Adding those to the unemployed adults, we have 122.78 takers and
123.79 million producers.

Documented here:

12/31/2013 1:03 PM  

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