Past predictions of the Climatic Research Unit at University of East Anglia

I have seen several predictions by this group in recent years. If I have time, I will collect them. Obviously, 2007 was not a particularly warm year. A 60 percent chance of matching or breaking the record means that even if you don't get the highest temperature on record, the probably that you will get one of the higher temperatures should be extremely high.

Scientists Say 2007 May Be Warmest Yet

By RAPHAEL G. SATTER
The Associated Press
Thursday, January 4, 2007; 2:48 PM
LONDON -- Deepening drought in Australia. Stronger typhoons in Asia. Floods in Latin America. British climate scientists predict that a resurgent El Nino climate trend combined with higher levels of greenhouse gases could touch off a fresh round of ecological disasters _ and make 2007 the world's hottest year on record.

"Even a moderate (El Nino) warming event is enough to push the global temperatures over the top," said Phil Jones, director of the Climatic Research unit at the University of East Anglia.

The warmest year on record is 1998, when the average global temperature was 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit higher than the long-term average of 57 degrees. Though such a change appears small, incremental differences can, for example, add to the ferocity of storms by evaporating more steam off the ocean.

There is a 60 percent chance that the average global temperature for 2007 will match or break the record, Britain's Meteorological Office said Thursday. The consequences of the high temperatures could be felt worldwide. . . .