2/02/2016

UPDATE: Incredible winning rate of Hillary Clinton's coin flips to break caucus ties, a fifty-fifty split would have had Sanders ahead


As about 12:21 AM CST, there had been six out of six coin flips that Clinton had won to break ties.


The odds of winning six out of six coin flips with a fair coin is only 1.7%.  Using the latest number of delegates on Drudge shown above at 7:00 AM EST would still have Sanders ahead by one vote if the coin flips had gone 50-50.  Sanders would still be slightly ahead by 698 to 697.

Counting the votes might be a little more complicated in Iowa.  If each coin flip determines more than one of these 1,395 delegates, then Hillary would have had to win more than 50% of the coin flips to win the race.

UPDATE: The Washington Post reported that the Des Moines Register missed some cases.
The initial 6-for-6 report, from the Des Moines Register missed a few Sanders coin-toss wins. (There were a lot of coin tosses!) The ratio of Clinton to Sanders wins was closer to 50-50, which is what we'd expect. . . .
There might have been a total of 13 coin flips with Hillary Clinton winning 7 of the six. 

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1 Comments:

Blogger JM said...

Perhaps we will just have to accept she is the lucky one. After all she did turn $1000 into $100,000.

2/04/2016 3:16 PM  

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