7/12/2014

Estimated Second Quarter GDP growth implies that Weather wasn't the reason for the drop in 1st quarter GDP

GDP fell at an annual rate of 2.96 percent in the 1st quarter.  To make that up, just to get back to where we were at during the end of December, would require a 3.1 percent increase in the 2nd quarter.  But that would leave us with zero growth over the first half year.  But if the shrinking GDP in the first quarter was just a temporary aberration from weather, we should easily make that up and be back up to at least the meager annual growth rate of 1.8 percent we have experienced during the Obama "recovery."  From The Hill:
Business economists have lowered their estimates for economic growth in the second quarter following news of a significant contraction during the first three months of the year. 
The April to June forecast fell to 3 percent from a 3.5 annual rate in June, according to a special survey released Friday by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). 
The forecast change is due mostly to a late June report showing that the economy shrank at a 2.9 percent pace in the first quarter. . . .

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