Stu Rothenberg explains why people are misreading the polls on the relative popularity of Republicans and Democrats

Stu Rothenberg has a very convincing explanation that the polls that people have been pointing to don't mean what they think that they mean.  From Roll Call:
. . . But the survey showed that while 31 percent of independents had a favorable view of the GOP, 30 percent had a favorable view of the Democratic Party. And while 60 percent of independents had an unfavorable opinion of the Republican Party, 61 percent had an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party. 
How could independents have the same view of the two parties and yet the Republican brand be about 10 points worse among all respondents? 
The answer is clear in the data: Republican respondents had a much more negative view of their own party than Democrats had of their party. 
A stunning 29 percent of Republicans had an unfavorable view of the GOP, while only 14 percent of Democrats had an unfavorable view of their party. Only 67 percent of Republicans had a favorable view of the GOP, while 85 percent of Democrats had a favorable view of the Democratic Party. . . . 
Unfortunately for Democrats, from a strategic point of view, Republicans’ battered image of their own party isn’t likely going to be a serious problem for the GOP in the fall elections. That’s because, when the midterms roll around in November, Republican voters will vote for Republican nominees, and Democrats will vote for Democratic nominees. That’s what almost always happens. . . .

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Blogger August said...

When midterms roll around in November, some of us stay home.
This poll suggests the Republicans will suffer more for it, which I think is true. I can think of one guy who was a democrat but gave up on voting because Obama appointed some Monsanto hack as head of agriculture.
But I can think of more former Republicans who will not vote. Additionally, since the GOP/Romney discrimination against the Ron Paul people- well, it is reasonable to assume they've lost some of the most energetic people they've ever had.
Political parties do die, eventually. When I was young I thought the Democrats would be the first to go, but now I am pretty sure the Republicans- because they don't listen or deliver- will go first.

3/12/2014 9:53 AM  

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