11/15/2013

Evidence that the changes in part-time jobs over this year have been related to the employer health insurance mandate

If you graph out the data on the change in part-time jobs and take into account that the Obama administration announced a temporary delay in the employer mandate in early July, it sure looks like part-time jobs were increasing for a few months as employers thought that they were getting closer to the mandate going into effect and that as soon as the mandate was put on hold there was a sudden drop in part-time jobs.  The reason that others are missing this pattern is that they aren't taking into account the Obama administration announcement and the fact that there is no reason to push people into part-time employment a long period of time before the rule finally goes into place.

Note that there were no similar sudden swings in full-time jobs over the same period of time.


With the one year delay, the number of part-time jobs seems to have gotten back to its original trend.  If I am right, we will again see an increase in part-time jobs next year.  Obviously these changes are small, but it appears that this small variation could be related to Obamacare.

The data from the BLS.gov is available here.



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