9/12/2013

Obama's CEA hides impact of the Affordable Care Act on part-time workers by looking at wrong time period

Betsey Stevenson, who is with the Obama's Council of Economic Advisors and also Justin Wolfers' wife, has this claim:
New data out today in the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Report show that of the increase in employment since the Affordable Care Act became law, more than 9 out of 10 positions have been full-time. . . .
So how is this consistent with my previous post that "96 percent of net jobs added this year have been part-time jobs"?  There is a simple explanation.  They are looking at the change in jobs since March 2010.  My discussion was clearly only about the changes that have occurred this year.  To me it doesn't make much sense to look at the change over the entire period because many of the regulations didn't start for years.  For example, what if that the change was due to the employer mandate?  But that regulation was not supposed to go into effect until the end of this year.  Given that firms apparently preferred full-time workers for these jobs, there is no reason to expect them changing the jobs from full-time to part-time so far in advance.  Obama's economists don't really explain why they expect noticeable changes to occur 3.75 years before the employer mandate.

Just to remind people of the pattern in full-time and part-time jobs this year.




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