A five point edge in Democrats produces a one percentage point lead for Obama. Does anyone believe that Democrats are going to turn out in this rate compared to Republicans? My guess is that Republicans are more reluctant than Democrats to talk to pollsters, particularly certain ones. Remember the exit polls in 2004?
Amazed how lucky I am that I have had jobs where I could just think about whatever I wanted to think about. I have published over 90 articles in academic journals. I received my Ph.D. in economics from UCLA in 1984.