A Wall Street Journal headline to remember

In a recent op-ed, I criticized a previous headline in the WSJ on unemployment (see here).  We won't know if this newest headline from October 5th is right until the numbers on hiring come out in a couple of weeks (see the JOLT data).  Change in the number of jobs is not the same thing hiring.  The number of jobs depends on hiring and separations. Jobs can increase even if hiring falls if separations drops by an even larger amount.

Indeed, that is exactly what has happened if one compares the hiring and separation rates in the recession versus the recovery.  Average hiring has been lower during the recovery than during the recession.  But separations fell by more than hiring.  Almost all the drop in separations has been due to a drop in quits, which is actually pretty bad because it indicates that people are fearful about not getting a new job.

My guess is that the WSJ headline prove to be wrong.



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