Goolsbee on jobs: 'One month is not a trend'
The "one month is not a trend" claim from Austan Goolsbee has gotten a little old. Unemployment has gone up for three straight months and there is a good chance that it will go up again tomorrow. If it does go up for four straight months, can we call that a trend?
March 8.8%
April 9.0%
May 9.1%
June 9.2%
July ???%
March 8.8%
April 9.0%
May 9.1%
June 9.2%
July ???%
Labels: AustinGoolsbee, unemployment
posted by John Lott at 11:02 PM
1 Comments:
Why settle for 4 months? Why not plot it out for the last 3 years?
As the negative economic stimuli keep piling up: TARP-1, TARP-2, the economic stimulus package, QE1, QE2, Obamacare, EPA regulations, the auto industry bailout, etc., what we see is a somewhat under-damped (unemployment was over 10 percent at one point) decaying exponential as the economy settles toward a new equilibrium.
I would expect to see a similar behavior in just about any economic indicator that you might care to examine.
Now, with the increase in the debt ceiling raising the debt to GDP ratio even more, possible downgrade to the US credit rating, possible QE3, and any other new negative economic stimuli that the Obama administration might cook up, we could expect the economy to react to such stimuli by settling toward an even worse equilibrium.
Just saying ...
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