What will the new GDP numbers show this week?

The gross domestic product estimate for the first quarter of 2011 is due Thursday. For the first six quarters after the recovery under Obama, GDP growth has averaged about 2.95 percent. Under Reagan, given what was probably at least as bad of a recession, GDP growth averaged 7 percent, more than twice as much. Already the poor growth numbers expected to be released on Thursday are being explained away by high oil prices. With prices reaching $3.896 per gallon on April 20th, they are indeed quite high. But this is akin to leaving out oil and food price increases in measuring inflation. Obama blames speculators for the high prices, while Obama should look at government for responsibility.

If it isn't speculators, what then? For those who take the old claim about monopoly power by gasoline companies, this chart might be useful.


UPDATE: IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end

According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China’s economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now. . . .

The IMF in its analysis looks beyond exchange rates to the true, real terms picture of the economies using “purchasing power parities.” That compares what people earn and spend in real terms in their domestic economies.

Under PPP, the Chinese economy will expand from $11.2 trillion this year to $19 trillion in 2016. Meanwhile the size of the U.S. economy will rise from $15.2 trillion to $18.8 trillion. That would take America’s share of the world output down to 17.7%, the lowest in modern times. China’s would reach 18%, and rising.

Just 10 years ago, the U.S. economy was three times the size of China’s. . . .