Health care, terrorism and exit polls

Democrats may not want to believe that Obamacare cost them seats, but the exit polls show something quite different. From the WSj's Political Diary:

Surveys of voters taken as they left their polling place found that 48% favored wholesale repeal of ObamaCare, including nearly a quarter of Democrats. A full 36% of those Democrats broke against their party and voted for GOP candidates. "To a lot of folks, it was a symbol of government [out of control]," said Jack Beattie, a Florida-based pollster for Democrats.

Bailouts also proved both unpopular and a drag on Democrats. When asked who they primarily blamed for the financial crisis, the three out of ten voters who blamed the Bush administration overwhelmingly voted for Democratic candidates (85% to 13%). The quarter of voters who blamed President Obama voted 91% for Republicans. Republicans also carried a 56% majority of the 35% of voters who primarily faulted Wall Street.

The Yemen terrorist plots that broke last week made an impression on the electorate. A full 9% of those questioned by exit pollsters said it was the most important issue determining their vote. They broke 55% to 42% in favor of Democratic candidates, a rallying-around-the-flag response that often benefits the party in power. Without the terror incident, Democrats might have taken an even bigger beating yesterday. . . .

A Democrat Pollster saying how Obama could benefit generally from a terrorist attack.



The Hill newspaper has a provocative headline: "Few Democrats survive healthcare vote."

one of 77 "yes" vote seats in play Tuesday evening. . . .

Within hours, a dozen members had lost reelection, including four freshmen elected in the 2008 Democratic wave: Reps. Tom Perriello and Glenn Nye of Virgina and Suzanne Kosmas and Alan Grayson of Florida.

They weren't alone: Democratic Reps. Baron Hill (Ind.), Carol Shea-Porter (N.H.) and Allen Boyd (Fla.) quickly joined them. So did Pennsylvania Reps. Kathy Dahlkemper, Chris Carney and Paul Kanjorski, all of whom were main targets of the anti-abortion-rights group the Susan B. Anthony List.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), who voted for the bill when her vote was crucial but later voted no on reconciliation, was also defeated.

The trend is even worse when factoring in yes votes who weren't running for reelection.

Retiring Rep. Bart Gordon (Tenn.) left Democratic candidate Brett Carter to get pulverized by Republican Diane Black, 29.3 percent to 67.5.

Democrats did, however, pick up Republican Rep. Joseph Cao's seat in Louisiana. Cao had voted yes on the bill in November — the only Republican to do so — but changed his vote when the bill returned before the House in March.