The biggest obstacle for the health care bill is abortion

John Fund at the WSJ's Political Diary has this:

. . . While the House and Senate bills contain major differences, the most important politically concerns abortion, a subject where votes aren't easily moved. Rep. Bart Stupak, a Michigan Democrat, is opposed to Senate language that he says inadequately restricts federal subsidies for insurance plans that cover abortions. Pro-life groups say the Senate language involves "book-keeping contortions" to evade the 30-year-old Hyde Amendment, which bans federal funding of abortion.

Rep. Stupak has assured colleagues that he has 10 fellow Democrats who will vote against any weakening of the Stupak Amendment, the strong ban on federal funding that was the final reason health care prevailed in the House. . . .

A final bill will need 218 House votes, assuming all members vote. But the Stupak language was rejected by the Senate, making the math dicey for Democrats. Rep. Joseph Cao, the only Republican to back the House bill, will drop off without firm pro-life language. And 11 Democrats who voted for the House bill have pledged in a letter to Speaker Pelosi that they "cannot support any health care reform proposal unless it explicitly excludes abortion from the scope of any government-defined or subsidized health insurance plan."

Speaker Pelosi could make up for the loss of 10 pro-life votes by getting some of the 39 Democrats who voted against the bill the first time to change sides. But many of those Blue Dog moderates are also pro-life or come from districts where pro-life sentiment is strong. In addition, public support for the overall bill has only eroded since the House passed it in November, which naturally means some Members will be even less likely to climb aboard what they now consider a sinking legislative ship. . . .

Democrat . . . . . . . . . Win Margin . . . Winner presidential . . . . % supposedly uninsured
Scott Murphy(N.Y. 20) . . . . <1 . . . . Obama +3% . . . . . 12%
Bobby Bright(ALA. 2) . . . . <1 . . . . McCain +26% . . . . . 15%
Frank Kratovil Jr.(MD. 1) . . . . <1 . . . . McCain +19% . . . . . 11%
Walt Minnick(IDAHO 1) . . . . +1 . . . . McCain +26% . . . . . 20%
Eric Massa(N.Y. 29) . . . . +2 . . . . McCain +3% . . . . . 10%
Parker Griffith(ALA. 5) . . . . +3 . . . . McCain +23% . . . . . 16%
John Adler(N.J. 3) . . . . +4 . . . . Obama +5% . . . . . 11%
Glenn Nye(VA. 2) . . . . +5 . . . . Obama +2% . . . . . 12%
Chet Edwards(TEX. 17) . . . . +8 . . . . McCain +35% . . . . . 23%
Travis Childers(MISS. 1) . . . . +11 . . . . McCain +24% . . . . . 19%
John Boccieri(OHIO 16) . . . . +11 . . . . McCain +2% . . . . . 14%
Larry Kissell(N.C. 8) . . . . +11 . . . . Obama +5% . . . . . 20%
Jason Altmire(PA. 4) . . . . +12 . . . . McCain +11% . . . . . 9%
Harry Teague(N.M. 2) . . . . +12 . . . . McCain +1% . . . . . 25%
Betsy Markey(COLO. 4) . . . . +12 . . . . McCain +1% . . . . . 18%
Jim Marshall(GA. 8) . . . . +15 . . . . McCain +13% . . . . . 22%
Suzanne Kosmas(FLA. 24) . . . . +16 . . . . McCain +2% . . . . . 20%
Dennis J. Kucinich(OHIO 10) . . . . +18 . . . . Obama +20% . . . . . 13%
Lincoln Davis(TENN. 4) . . . . +21 . . . . McCain +29% . . . . . 17%
Allen Boyd(FLA. 2) . . . . +24 . . . . McCain +9% . . . . . 18%
Heath Shuler(N.C. 11) . . . . +26 . . . . McCain +5% . . . . . 21%
Tim Holden(PA. 17) . . . . +27 . . . . McCain +3% . . . . . 10%
Michael E. McMahon(N.Y. 13) . . . . +28 . . . . McCain +2% . . . . . 11%
Brian Baird(WASH. 3) . . . . +28 . . . . Obama +8% . . . . . 15%
Jim Matheson(UTAH 2) . . . . +29 . . . . McCain +18% . . . . . 16%
Ben Chandler(KY. 6) . . . . +29 . . . . McCain +12% . . . . . 16%
Ike Skelton(MO. 4) . . . . +32 . . . . McCain +22% . . . . . 17%
John Barrow(GA. 12) . . . . +32 . . . . Obama +11% . . . . . 21%
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin(S.D.) . . . . +35 . . . . McCain +8% . . . . . 14%
Mike McIntyre(N.C. 7) . . . . +38 . . . . McCain +5% . . . . . 23%
Dan Boren(OKLA. 2) . . . . +41 . . . . McCain +32% . . . . . 29%
Collin C. Peterson(MINN. 7) . . . . +45 . . . . McCain +3% . . . . . 11%
Bart Gordon(TENN. 6) . . . . +49 . . . . McCain +25% . . . . . 14%
Gene Taylor(MISS. 4) . . . . +49 . . . . McCain +35% . . . . . 22%
Mike Ross(ARK. 4) . . . . +72 . . . . McCain +19% . . . . . 22%
Rick Boucher(VA. 9) . . . . UNOPPOSED . . . . McCain +19% . . . . . 16%
Artur Davis(ALA. 7) . . . . UNOPPOSED . . . . Obama +48% . . . . . 19%
Charlie Melancon(LA. 3) . . . . UNOPPOSED . . . . McCain +24% . . . . . 18%
John Tanner(TENN. 8) . . . . UNOPPOSED

After looking at this list, can the Dems pick up 10 of these 39 Congressmen? Probably. Stopping the bill is possible, but it will take a lot of work.