11/01/2008

Zogby Poll Puts McCain ahead by one percentage point

You can find a summary of Zogby's most recent poll here:

Half of Zogby's current national poll average was taken after Obama's infomercial ... and here are his preliminary findings.

No evidence that Obama benefited from the infomercial.
Obama's support dropped 1.1%, McCain's gained 0.8%.
The last day of polling had McCain winning 48% to 47%. Zogby cautions us to wait until tomorrow to see if McCain really has traction.
Pollster John Zogby: "Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. "Obama's lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on."

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3 Comments:

Blogger The Right Guy said...

John:
How is it that these polls are all over the place? Aren't these polls conducted by legitimate and objective psephologists? If so, I can't see the disparities. Someone is not telling the truth.

11/01/2008 6:07 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Woo Hoo!

11/01/2008 8:34 PM  
Anonymous Cormac said...

There are a few reasons for poll disparity...you can look at demographic info of those polled (almost always more democrats than republicans), the questions asked leading up to "who are you voting for?" (the selection and wording of questions can confuse or sway undecided voters) and the number of people who refused to participate (I've heard of up to 90% refusals in polls this year)

Also, the history of national polling seems to lean left, while the outcome is often better for Republican candidates.

11/02/2008 11:19 AM  

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