A survey of people in Florida who watched both conventions on TV
The big problem that you have in looking at polls of people who watched conventions is something called sorting. Republicans watch Republican conventions and Democrats watch Democratic conventions. The problem is probably even worse than that because it is usually the more hardcore in those groups who watch. A similar problem comes up with polls after presidential State of the Union addresses. This SurveyUSA poll is the only one that I have seen that looked at people who watched both the McCain and Obama acceptance speeches. These results just make me wish that more than 40 million people watched each of these talks.
3) Asked of 499 who heard both speeches
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.4%
Who has the better plan for Iraq? McCain? Or Obama?
57% McCain
38% Obama
5% Not Sure
4) Asked of 499 who heard both speeches
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.4%
Who has the better plan for energy independence?
57% McCain
38% Obama
5% Not Sure
5) Asked of 499 who heard both speeches
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.5%
Who has the better plan for health care?
47% McCain
44% Obama
10% Not Sure
6) Asked of 499 who heard both speeches
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.5%
Who is stronger on the environment?
48% McCain
44% Obama
7% Not Sure
7) Asked of 499 who heard both speeches
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.5%
Who is stronger on education?
51% McCain
42% Obama
7% Not Sure
8) Asked of 499 who heard both speeches
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.5%
Based on what you now know, are Democrats more interested in reaching out to Republicans? Are Republicans more interested in reaching out to Democrats? Are both parties equally interested in reaching out? Or, is neither party truly interested in reaching out?
23% Democrats Reaching Out
38% Republicans Reaching Out
15% Both Equally
21% Neither Truly Interested
2% Not Sure
9) Asked of 499 who heard both speeches
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.5%
If you were placing a bet today, would you bet that Barack Obama will be elected president? Or, John McCain will be elected president?
40% Barack Obama
55% John McCain
5% Not Sure
posted by John Lott at 6:13 PM
2 Comments:
It's indeed interesting, but would have been much more so had it been a national sample. Tampa/St Petersberg is probably not that representative of the US, particularly given the location of MacDill AFB.
I find interesting that the poll on each question shows a pattern of answering with McCain %, Obama % and Undecided % EXCEPT the last one on who would win.
If a person were skimming this article, wherever it originally came from, they might infer without really checking, that Obama would win since his name is FIRST on the last set of data.
More MSM sly maneuvering.
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