Why campaign finance regulations are going to make it very hard for McCain to win

If the campaign finance laws mean that Obama will be able to outspend McCain by 5-to-1, this story will be repeated many times. From WSJ's Political Diary today:

Paging Charlie Crist

Up until last month, John McCain led Barack Obama in every poll taken in Florida this year -- eleven in all. Since the middle of June, Mr. Obama has moved ahead in three of the last four surveys in the Sunshine State. The RealClearPolitics Average for Florida yesterday showed Messrs. McCain and Obama tied at 45.8% each, although a new poll today moves the average in Mr. McCain's favor by a slim 46% to 45.5%.

Mr. Obama's surge in Florida is explained by an analysis of advertising spending released yesterday by the University of Wisconsin. Between June 3 (the effective end of the Democratic primary) and July 26, Team Obama spent a whopping $5,028,000 on television ads in Florida -- at least $1 million more than Team Obama spent in any other state. Mr. McCain's spending during that same period? Zero.

Earlier this week the Obama campaign announced an unprecedented $20 million push for Latino voters that will focus on Florida and three other states. That effort, coupled with an expected surge in African-American turnout and an aggressive outreach to Jewish voters, has the Obama camp believing they have a legitimate shot at winning Florida in November.

Six weeks ago, with Mr. McCain leading in all the Florida polls, it looked as if adding Governor Charlie Crist to the ticket was not only unnecessary but might further alienate some conservatives. Today, with Mr. Obama pouring resources into Florida, things look considerably different. Speculation about a McCain VP selection lately has raged around Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, but Mr. McCain may want to give Mr. Crist another look -- because it's impossible to see how Mr. McCain wins the White House without Florida's 27 electoral votes.

-- Tom Bevan, executive editor of RealClearPolitics.com