3/21/2008

Prediction on Democratic Nominee and Democratic party

On February 15th I predicted that Clinton would win the nomination. Despite the conventional wisdom that points to the fact that Obama is ahead by about 132 delegates, the recent events have only confirmed my feelings about this. I think that Clinton will win a smashing victory in Pennsylvania and I am less certain but I think that she could win in North Carolina. In fact, with the possible exception of North Carolina, Clinton should take all the remaining primaries. North Carolina has a very large black population and that provides a huge safety net for Obama. One problem that this creates for Obama is that his current problems will be discussed over and over again as a possible explanation of him not doing well. I think that super delegates will begin to wonder more and more openly if Obama can make a strong showing in November. All this will split the Democratic party. Blacks will refuse to vote for Democrats in the Fall.

Even if Obama were to win the nomination, the party will be extremely divided. Today's event with Bill Richardson endorsing Obama convinces me even more that if Obama gets the nomination Richardson will be the VP nominee.

Down ballot races. My guess is that if Clinton gets the nomination, it will be a much worse disaster for down ballot Democrats. If she wins, blacks won't show up to vote for anyone. If Obama wins, he may lose some Democratic votes but those voters will still show up and vote down the ballot.

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2 Comments:

Blogger bobal said...

That's a steely prediction, John, given the numbers, which seem to show she can't overtake Obama in elected delegates, or in popular vote, though she might have a small chance in the latter.

Being from out west, I don't know much about North Carolina, but if she should walk away with it, and the nomination too, it looks dreadful if one is a democrat, as the anger of part of the party will be such as to doom her in the general election.

Go Hillary!

3/22/2008 2:43 AM  
Blogger jonathan said...

why is a large black population a safety net for obama? statistically speaking perhaps? has he been winning "the black vote" regularly? i am more curious than accusative, not having paid too much attention to the democratic nomination race, but nonetheless wary of such a statement.

3/22/2008 6:57 AM  

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