Prediction: Massive increase in Unemployment When the February Government Numbers are Released

This diagram shows that the Gallup measure bounces around a lot more than the Government's measure of unemployment, but they are positively correlated and more interestingly the government's measure lags Gallup's. The Government's survey is done the middle of each month and if you move the government's estimates forward by 14 days, the charts line up a little better. My prediction is that you are likely to see one hell of an increase in unemployment when the February numbers are released next month.



Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes, I am sure that there will be a massive increase in unemployment in the February figures from the government. There will also be a massive increase in the spin trying to make it somebody else's fault. So, what might be the units of spin, allowing unit analysis? RPM seems obvious, REVISIONS MINUTE^-1 REVISIONS PER MISTAKE

2/14/2011 11:16 AM  
Blogger TooMuchTime said...

The real unemployment numbers are close to 15%-20% now. If someone gives up looking for a job that shouldn't remove them from the unemployment rolls.

Besides, who do the unemployment numbers serve? If you're employed, you know it and probably don't care. If you're unemployed, you know it and probably don't want to be reminded of it. These numbers just serve the gov't; to make them look better than they really are.

2/17/2011 11:03 AM  

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