Which Republican presidential candidate has the highest probability of winning the general election?
My son Maxim and John Stossel have set up a website entitled "Election Betting Odds," where they show the probability that the candidates will win the Republican nomination and the presidency. The problem with the current odds for winning the presidency is that what you really want are the odds of winning the presidency conditional on winning the nomination. Looking at the odds for the candidates with at least a 10 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination, the conditional probabilities of winning the presidency are (8:30 AM EST February 6th, 2016):
Rubio 45% = 25.3%/56.7%
Trump 30% = 6.8%/23%
Cruz 28% = 3.5%/12.3%
Rubio 45% = 25.3%/56.7%
Trump 30% = 6.8%/23%
Cruz 28% = 3.5%/12.3%
Labels: Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, TedCruz
posted by John Lott at 8:23 AM
3 Comments:
Odds were against Reagan, too!
Bullshit.Just look at the Trump groups on Facebook. How many do you find supportibg Rubio? I can`t find one. To hell with your poles and crap.Votes are all that count in an honest election.
Forget about poles and other crap and just wait for the votes in honest elections. TRUMP WILL WIN BIG IN NH AND SC.
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