9/25/2009

Durable goods dropped 2.4 percent in August

Even the Associated Press can't put too much of a positive spin on this, though they do try.

Orders for goods expected to last at least three years fell unexpectedly in August due mainly to a drop in demand for commercial aircraft. The worst reading since January for durable goods is evidence that any recovery in manufacturing will be slow and gradual.
Economists were disappointed with the report, which followed similarly weaker-than-expected data on existing home sales Thursday, but most said it reflected the uneven nature of the economy as it transitions out of the worst recession since the 1930s. . . .
Autos and auto parts orders posted a 0.4 percent gain in August, after rising 1.6 percent in July, according to the government data. The sector received a major boost last month from the Cash for Clunkers program, which provided consumers rebates of up to $4,500 for trading in older cars for newer, more fuel-efficient models. The program, which ended last month, boosted auto sales 30 percent in August. . . .


Meanwhile existing home sales fell:

The National Association of Realtors said Thursday that sales dropped 2.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.1 million in August, from a pace of 5.24 million in July. . . .


In past months when sales of new homes rose, prices were falling. This market has a way to go before it improves.

This is probably the worst news.

"the estimated earnings growth for the overall S&P 500 for the third quarter now stands at negative 24.7% compared with an estimated growth rate of 20.9% on July 1, according to Thomas Reuters." . . .

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