Bummer: higher taxes, a worse situtation in Iraq
Well, the Republicans took it on the chin, losing both the Congress and probably the Senate. My predictions were pretty bad. The Senate judicial confirmations are going to be going nowhere. The last two years of a President's eight years are pretty tough anyway, but with control switching to the Dems, Bush will get nothing. I can only imagine what the Supreme Court confirmation battles are going to be like if Stevens retires as is rumored.
The one thing that I want to see tomorrow is what will happen when the stock market opens. It should be a real test of policies. Does the market think that Republican policies have been good overall? Not so good on regulations, but presumably much better than the Dems on taxes and still probably much better than the Dems on regulations. I am assuming that the market did not expect the Dems to take the Senate. If that is correct, tomorrow should see a real change in values.
UPDATE: The market starts down about 45 points. Undoubtedly part of any discomfort that the market has with these results were already anticipated for the House. New information will change this, but the best guess of the impact of the elections is the initial reaction.
UPDATE 2: With Rumsfield resigning, I looked at the market again, and the DOW took a drop of slightly over 20 points from where it was then at.
The one thing that I want to see tomorrow is what will happen when the stock market opens. It should be a real test of policies. Does the market think that Republican policies have been good overall? Not so good on regulations, but presumably much better than the Dems on taxes and still probably much better than the Dems on regulations. I am assuming that the market did not expect the Dems to take the Senate. If that is correct, tomorrow should see a real change in values.
UPDATE: The market starts down about 45 points. Undoubtedly part of any discomfort that the market has with these results were already anticipated for the House. New information will change this, but the best guess of the impact of the elections is the initial reaction.
UPDATE 2: With Rumsfield resigning, I looked at the market again, and the DOW took a drop of slightly over 20 points from where it was then at.
posted by John Lott at 2:55 AM
3 Comments:
I think there are huge implications to this election.
Not only are judicial appointments going to be a major problem, but the results are already being seen as a repudiation of US intervention Iraq (as opposed to a repudiation of US tactics and lack of conspicuous success in Iraq):
"Democratic gains in Congress were seen around the world Wednesday as a rejection of the U.S. war in Iraq that led some observers to expect a reassessment of the American course there."
The source of this quote is apparently none other than Kofi Annan's spokesman, and the election results can only delight corrupt UN officials and embolden Islamic terrorists worldwide.
Brian
Thanks. I hadn't seen the quote. It isn't surprising, and unfortunately I am sure that the terrorists will read the results the same way. The only positive event that I can point to is the decision of Sadam's former right hand man to call off the campaign of attacks after Sadam was convicted on Sunday.
I suppose in addition to emboldening our enemies, there is the additional problem of discouraging people from siding with us. And this may be a larger problem than terrorist emboldenment.
Question: What would you do if the US had asked you to put your life and the lives of your family on the line, and guaranteed to stand by you. Then, appeared to waver as we elected a slate of politicians who appeared ambivalent (at best) about that commitment?
That question is not lost on our opponents. As Clifford May pointed out, "Hassan Nasrallah told Al-Jazeera audiences (translation courtesy of MEMRI):"
"The Americans will gather their belongings and leave this region - the entire region. They have no future whatsoever in our region. They will leave the Middle East, and the Arab and Islamic worlds, like they left Vietnam. I advise all those who place their trust in the Americans to learn the lesson of Vietnam, and to learn the lesson of the South Lebanese Army with the Israelis, and to know that when the Americans lose this war — and lose it they will, Allah willing — they will abandon them to their fate, just like they did to all those who placed their trust in them throughout history."
If were in the position of an Iraqi citizen, and I'd been asked by them thar 'mericuns to side with the US, and I then saw the results of this election, that's what I'd believe.
And if I believed that, why on earth would I help the US?
Brian
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