Improving Polls in Senate Races?
The American Thinker summarizes the newest polling numbers:
The last few days have had some encouraging Senate polls for Republicans, while House polls are still mixed. Zogby has Talent up 3% in Missouri, Allen up 3% in Virginia,and Corker up 7% in Tennessee. He also has Kean up 2% in New Jersey where the New Republic exposes the smell of scandal emanating from Bob Menendez.
Zogby has Dewine down 4% in Ohio and Bouchard in Michigan only 4% behind Debbie Stabenow (I would not bet on accuracy of this last one). Rasmussen, generally more reliable, has a new poll with Burns down only 3% in Montana (was 6%). New poll today has Chafee down 4% in Rhdde Island (also closer than before).
Survey USA has Steele even with Cardin in Maryland. This is the wild card this year. Democrats are very nervous about black voters straying to vote for Steele. Cardin also has a personality deficit. McGavick is down 7 or 8 in Washington, not totally dead yet. The most optimistic way to read this is that Santorum’s race may be the only one beyond hope at the moment (closest polls have him 5 to 8 down, others more). Burns, Dewine, and Chafee still behind, but 5 points or less (Dewine behind by more in other surveys). . . .
In Pennsylvania, my experience is that the polls can frequently have the Republicans down by 8 to 10 pecent further than they should be. I have no idea why this keeps happening.
Zogby has Dewine down 4% in Ohio and Bouchard in Michigan only 4% behind Debbie Stabenow (I would not bet on accuracy of this last one). Rasmussen, generally more reliable, has a new poll with Burns down only 3% in Montana (was 6%). New poll today has Chafee down 4% in Rhdde Island (also closer than before).
Survey USA has Steele even with Cardin in Maryland. This is the wild card this year. Democrats are very nervous about black voters straying to vote for Steele. Cardin also has a personality deficit. McGavick is down 7 or 8 in Washington, not totally dead yet. The most optimistic way to read this is that Santorum’s race may be the only one beyond hope at the moment (closest polls have him 5 to 8 down, others more). Burns, Dewine, and Chafee still behind, but 5 points or less (Dewine behind by more in other surveys). . . .
In Pennsylvania, my experience is that the polls can frequently have the Republicans down by 8 to 10 pecent further than they should be. I have no idea why this keeps happening.
posted by John Lott at 12:54 PM
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