Two votes short of stopping the health care bill?

The Hill Newspaper says that there are 36 firm or leaning "no" votes. If 38 Dems vote against the bill, it will be killed. So if all the "no" votes hold and two of the 49 undecideds vote "no," the bill will be stopped.

John Fund has a list of the 8 Dems who are being lobbied hardest. Three are on the "no" list currently.

Rick Boucher of Virginia -- already under fire for his role in crafting a cap-and-trade bill that is a focal point of anger in his Coal Country district. Mr. Boucher, a 28-year-veteran, faces his toughest race in years.

Mike McMahon of New York -- representing the most conservative part of New York City (i.e. Staten Island), Mr. McMahon faces a tough re-election race. But he also has to watch his left flank. He's been visited by union officials who have told him that, should he vote "no" on health care, they might put up a candidate from the Working Families Party, a group with links to ACORN, in the fall and drain away liberal votes he would otherwise get.

Harry Teague of New Mexico -- Mr. Teague is already in hot water in this energy-producing district for voting for the cap-and-trade bill last year. In addition, Steve Pearce, his GOP predecessor, is running to reclaim his old seat in a district that John McCain carried in 2008. Mr. Teague will announce his position on health care today. He may well become a "yes" vote, having concluded he is unlikely to win re-election in any event.

Five Dems are listed as undecided on The Hill list.

Jason Altmire of Pennsylvania -- A former hospital executive, Mr. Altmire has teased Democratic leaders with his willingness to consider switching his vote. But this week he called leadership efforts to avoid an up-or-down vote on health care "wrong," signaling he may be tough to pull over.

John Boccieri of Ohio -- A freshman, Mr. Boccieri declined to appear with President Obama when he visited Ohio this week. Representing a district that voted for John McCain, he also knows ObamaCare is less popular in Ohio than in most states.

Glenn Nye of Virginia -- a Navy veteran who returned home to Norfolk to run for Congress. Mr. Nye represents a district that swung away from Democrats in last year's race for governor and knows he is highly vulnerable.

Scott Murphy of New York -- the narrow winner of a 2009 special election, Mr. Murphy represents a GOP-leaning district but has more wiggle room than most because he failed to draw a top-flight opponent this year.

Suzanne Kosmas of Florida -- a freshman who won in 2008 largely because the GOP incumbent was touched by scandal. Ms. Kosmas might be persuaded to take a political risk and vote "yes" after getting assurances that higher local funding for NASA is being considered.

If these eight split half-and-half and Dems all the other "nos" vote "no" and "Undecideds" vote "yes," the bill will be defeated.

Hannity has an updated list that show 42 Dems are going against the bill.

These lists indicate that it is going to be hard for Dems to win the vote.



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