If 38 Dems vote "no," the health care bill can be stopped in the House

Given the huge Democratic majority in the House, it is a sign of the bill's unpopularity that the is such strong bi-partisan opposition to it. With 38 no votes, this can be stopped. The Hill newspaper claims 35 are leaning "no." 72 are undecided (see list here). Can the 35 stick in there and can 3 of the 72 be turned? Sean Hannity's list makes it look as if things are moving slightly against the bill over the weekend, with one more "lean no" being picked up (Bishop NY). Hannity's list has 19 lean no and 24 probably no, a total of 43. Bishop is not on The Hill's list. So we might be at 36, just two short.

From the Hill newspaper: Firm No, Leaning No, Likely No (35)
John Adler (N.J.) (N) Waiting to see bill. Sounded like a no on Fox News, saying House and Senate bills fail to address cost containment
Michael Arcuri (N.Y.) (Y) Some reports have him as firm no, but Rules Committee member hasn't closed the door yet
John Barrow (Ga.) * (N) Voted no last year in committee and on floor. Likely no
Marion Berry (Ark.) * (Y) Has been critical of the president since announcing his retirement. Strong backer of Stupak language
Dan Boren (Okla.) * (N) Won't be changing his mind — firm no
Rick Boucher (Va.) (N) GOP target who has told local press outlets in Virginia he has major problems with Medicare cuts and "unsavory deal making" that benefited Nebraska, Louisiana and Florida. Leaning no
Bobby Bright (Ala.) * (N) Voted against House health bill, stimulus and climate change. Firm no
Ben Chandler (Ky.) * (N) His office told The Plum Line his position hasn't changed since November
Travis Childers (Miss.) * (N) In toss-up reelection race
Henry Cuellar (Texas) * (Y) Cuellar told Investor's Business Daily that without changes to abortion language, he's a no. Under pressure from Speaker and the president, Cuellar did back climate change bill and House healthcare bill last year. Cuellar, who is heavily favored to win reelection, cannot be counted as a firm no
Artur Davis (Ala.) * (N) Running for governor, but will make sure to return to D.C. to vote no
Lincoln Davis (Tenn.) * (N) Voted no first time, and most expect him to vote no again
Joe Donnelly (Ind.) * (Y) Among the Stupak dozen — will vote no unless abortion language in Senate bill is changed, according to The Rochester Sentinel
Steve Driehaus (Ohio) * (Y) In toss-up race in November. Member of Stupak's group but is not a firm no.
Chet Edwards (Texas) (N) Perennial GOP target. Edwards spokesman told CNN he will vote no
Luis Gutierrez (Ill.) (Y) Citing immigration language, Gutierrez said on MSNBC that "I can't support this bill." Lawmaker has lambasted the president on not moving immigration reform yet. Warned that other Hispanic lawmakers will also vote no
Larry Kissell (N.C.) (N) GOP target, but reelection chances on the rise. Firm no
Frank Kratovil (Md.) (N) Voted for climate change; says he will vote no
Dennis Kucinich (Ohio) (N) Progressive was on the fence before House vote last fall — not this time. He's a firm no
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (S.D.) (N) Congresswoman told the Rapid City Journal she's a no, noting she is not a fan of reconciliation. She also voted no on education reform bill expected to move in reconciliation with healthcare reform
Tim Holden (Pa.) * (N) Voted against healthcare and climate change in 2009. Told The Republican Herald that he is a no, citing abortion and "significant" cuts to Medicare and Medicaid
Daniel Lipinski (Ill.) * (Y) Will not vote for abortion language in Senate bill, but has other concerns as well. Democratic leaders cannot count on Lipinski
Jim Marshall (Ga.) * (N) Perennial GOP target, but favored to win reelection. Told The Hill he's a no
Jim Matheson (Utah) * (N) President Obama this year tapped brother for post, but Matheson still a likely no
Mike McIntyre (N.C.) * (N) Seven-term lawmaker rejected House health bill and climate change. Spokesman tells The Hill McIntyre is a no. Expected to win reelection easily even though Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won district
Mike McMahon (N.Y.) (N) Suggested last month he was a no to the Staten Island Advance. McMahon told The Hill on March 12 he is leaning no. Voted no on education reform bill that is expected to move with healthcare reform in reconciliation
Charlie Melancon (La.) * (N) Senate hopeful voted no in November and no in committee. Likely no
Walt Minnick (Idaho) (N) One of the House's most conservative members. Firm no
Collin Peterson (Minn.) * (N) Ag chairman not shy in bucking leadership. Firm no
Mike Ross (Ark.) * (N) Voted for bill in committee, but not since. Firm no
Heath Shuler (N.C.) * (N) CNN reporting Shuler is a no. Doesn't hold his tongue when he opposes Democratic leaders. Critic of reconciliation
Ike Skelton (Mo.) * (N) GOP targeting his seat. Armed Services Committee chairman is a firm no
Bart Stupak (Mich.) * (Y) No deal with leadership on abortion = no vote on final bill for Stupak and other Democratic opponents of abortion rights
Gene Taylor (Miss.) * (N) Has been a firm no all Congress. Constituents last summer urged him to get others to vote no
Harry Teague (N.M.) * (N) Told The Hill that he will review bill to see if final bill brings costs down. If "we are in the same place — a no"

UPDATE: Since then Chris Carney (Pa.) has been added to the probably "no" list, raising the number to 36 "nos."

Of the undecided ones, these should be the most like to vote "no" since they were members of Stupak's 12, that is assuming that they really believe what they claim on government funded abortions.

Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, D-Pa.
Rep. Brad Ellsworth, D-Ind.
Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio
Rep. Charlie Wilson, D-Ohio
Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio
Rep. Sanford Bishop, D-Ga.



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