John Fund on predicting the election

John Fund has this at the WSJ's Political Diary:

Uncertainty is stalking Democratic watering holes in Washington, where diners had been counting on appointments in an Obama administration.

The latest Real Clear Politics average of published polls shows John McCain now taking the lead from Barack Obama 47% to 46%. The newest of those polls (USA Today/Gallup) shows Mr. McCain with a ten-point lead among the most likely voters -- often the most reliable measurement of the electorate that actually shows up on Election Day. Typically, only two-thirds of registered voters end up voting, and those who do vote tend to be more Republican -- one reason for Barack Obama's superhuman efforts to sign up new voters and get them to the polls.

The McCain surge following his convention is genuine. Its message for the Obama campaign is that they can't expect to win the election simply on the unpopularity of the Bush administration and the strength of their man's personal appeal. . . .

In fact, since 1968, no Republican has done worse on Election Day than he was doing in major polls taken around Labor Day. On that basis, Mr. Obama should worry that Mr. McCain has now tied him or is leading in current polls.

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