PREDICTION: Clinton will win the total Dem primary vote

It is pretty clear to me that Hillary will very likely win the popular vote for the Democratic nomination, virtually anyway you cut it.

First note that RealClearPolitics indicates the following vote differences between Clinton and Obama:

Popular Vote Total Obama +417,805 +1.2%
Popular Vote (w/FL) Obama +123,033 +0.3%
Popular Vote (w/FL & MI)** Clinton +205,276 +0.58%

Tonight it appears clear that Clinton will net 150,000 more votes between Kentucky and Oregon than Obama. If that holds when the rest of the votes in Oregon are counted, Clinton could have a 30,000 vote lead in the popular vote with Florida. Then there are only three places voting left.

Note Puerto Rico has about 3 million adults.
Montana has about 728,000 adults
South Dakota has about 587,000 adults

PR thus has 1.68 million more adults than Montana and SD. Obviously, Democratic primary voters would only make up something around a quarter or more of this total. Clinton is apparently strong in PR (ahead by 13 points in mid April). It seems very plausible that even if Clinton loses Montana and SD, she will pick up a couple hundred net votes. I found one poll for SD in April that showed, Obama ahead by 10 points, but things could have changed since then. Clearly she will be clearly ahead with Florida and Florida & Michigan and the total without them would be very close. If she carries SD and or Montana, I think it would likely be that she would carry the total vote without Florida or Michigan.

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